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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 51

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SEA 46 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe).

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.99 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 51, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model