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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 14

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 38-C.Ryland 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.72 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model