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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 86

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to HOU 37, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel to HOU 37 for no gain (26-M.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 86, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 44, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model