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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

TEN
31.2%
HOU
68.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: C.J. Stroud (HOU) -0.078 vs Cam Ward (TEN) -0.286 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TEN 19
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

TEN

Bryce Oliver WR Out Knee
JC Latham T Out Hip
Kevin Winston Jr. S Doubtful Hamstring
Dan Moore Jr. T Questionable Illness
Dorian Mausi LB Questionable Back

HOU

Derek Stingley Jr. CB Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 0
–
HOU 26

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:55 FG HOU (4:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. TEN 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 13:34 FG HOU (13:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. TEN 0 – HOU 6
  • Q4 15:00 TD HOU (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 27-W.Marks for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – HOU 12
  • Q4 09:31 TD HOU (9:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 81-J.Higgins for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: HOU-27-W.Marks has returned to the game. TEN 0 – HOU 18
  • Q4 04:57 TD HOU (4:57) 27-W.Marks left tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – HOU 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 90%

    (11:44) 6-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:47) 7-C.Stroud up the middle to HOU 42 for 2 yards (50-C.Barton).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 84%

    (4:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:13) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 88%

    (13:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 30%

    (8:56) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to TEN 10, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:54) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to HOU 37, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel to HOU 37 for no gain (26-M.Harris).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:14) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 27-W.Marks up the middle to HOU 48 for 2 yards (28-Q.Diggs, 33-C.Gray).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 17 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 42%

    (1:55) 6-T.Townsend punts 25 yards to TEN 23, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 89%

    (:03) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 71%

    (10:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 50%

    (7:54) 3-J.Hekker punts 27 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 71%

    (1:57) 7-C.Stroud left tackle to TEN 34 for 2 yards (53-J.Ward).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 5-E.Ayomanor (72-T.Togiai).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (4:04) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel to HOU 28 for no gain (26-M.Harris).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 64 yards to TEN 2, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.