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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 48

Houston Texans 6 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 6-T.Townsend punts 25 yards to TEN 23, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.75 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model