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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 3-J.Hekker punts 27 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.79 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model