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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 36
Houston Texans 6 – Tennessee Titans 0
What Actually Happened
(1:57) 7-C.Stroud left tackle to TEN 34 for 2 yards (53-J.Ward).
The Three Options
GO
+1.90 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.56 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
KICK
+0.40 EP
- 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
- 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
