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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(6:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 5-E.Ayomanor (72-T.Togiai).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model