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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 29

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.54 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model