Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 3

(3:13) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model