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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 25

Houston Texans 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.90 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model