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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 42

Denver Broncos 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 33 yards to PHI 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model