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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

DEN
39.0%
PHI
61.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: +0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.146 vs Bo Nix (DEN) +0.162 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DEN 24
–
PHI 28
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

DEN

Lucas Krull TE Out Foot

PHI

Nakobe Dean LB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 21
–
PHI 17

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:53 FG DEN (6:53) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 3 – PHI 0
  • Q1 00:32 FG PHI (:32) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann. DEN 3 – PHI 3
  • Q2 07:24 TD PHI (7:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – PHI 9
  • Q3 13:32 TD PHI (13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 26-S.Barkley for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-98-J.Franklin-Myers was injured during the play. DEN 3 – PHI 16
  • Q4 13:16 TD DEN (13:16) 27-J.Dobbins right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – PHI 17
  • Q4 07:43 TD DEN (7:43) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 1-E.Engram for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – PHI 17
  • Q4 01:14 FG DEN (1:14) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 21 – PHI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:30) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:22) 10-B.Mann punts 69 yards to DEN 8, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 31 for 23 yards (83-K.Granson).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 13 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 65%

    (6:53) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (:32) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:58) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to PHI 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 25%

    (2:27) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:26) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to PHI 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:02) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to DEN 40, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Mims to DEN 44 for 4 yards (37-T.Bigsby; 36-C.Latu).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:15) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 54 yards to PHI 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 15 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%

    (7:25) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 33 yards to PHI 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:26) 10-B.Mann punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (3:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to PHI 29, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 44 for 15 yards (34-J.Skinner).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 16 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:22) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to DEN 29, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Mims to DEN 28 for -1 yards (36-C.Latu).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:13) 10-B.Mann punts 23 yards to DEN 32, Center-57-C.Adomitis, downed by PHI-29-A.Dillon.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 14 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (1:14) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.