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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Denver Broncos 18

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 10-B.Mann punts 23 yards to DEN 32, Center-57-C.Adomitis, downed by PHI-29-A.Dillon.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model