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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 37

Denver Broncos 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.23 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model