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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:32) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 13, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model