Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 66

Detroit Lions 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(15:00) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to CIN 3, impetus ends at CIN 2, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-19-D.Lovett.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model