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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 16:25 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread -10.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

DET
69.2%
CIN
30.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.185 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jake Browning (CIN) -0.016 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.294 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 26
–
CIN 19
Projected margin: DET by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

DET

Zach Cunningham LB Out Hamstring
Khalil Dorsey CB Out Concussion
Alim McNeill DT Out Knee
Sione Vaki RB Out Groin
Taylor Decker T Doubtful Shoulder
Kerby Joseph S Questionable Knee

CIN

Shemar Stewart DE Out Ankle
Charlie Jones WR Questionable Achilles

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 37
–
CIN 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:57 TD DET (10:57) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CIN 0
  • Q2 12:19 TD DET (12:19) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 5-D.Montgomery. 5-D.Montgomery pass short middle to 89-B.Wright for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – CIN 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG CIN (:03) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. DET 14 – CIN 3
  • Q3 11:32 TD DET (11:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 0-J.Gibbs for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – CIN 3
  • Q3 05:48 TD DET (5:48) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 27 – CIN 3
  • Q4 15:00 TD CIN (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-A.Hutchinson]. DET 28 – CIN 9
  • Q4 10:31 TD CIN (10:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 28 – CIN 16
  • Q4 05:19 TD DET (5:19) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-I.TeSlaa for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 34 – CIN 17
  • Q4 03:05 TD CIN (3:05) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 35 – CIN 23
  • Q4 01:54 SAF DET (1:54) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning sacked in End Zone for -7 yards, SAFETY (55-D.Barnes). DET 37 – CIN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 15 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 49%

    (8:19) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:31) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to DET 9, Center-46-W.Wagner. 11-K.Raymond to DET 23 for 14 yards (34-S.Perine). DET-11-K.Raymond was injured during the play. PENALTY on DET-15-G.Stuard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 20.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (15:00) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to CIN 3, impetus ends at CIN 2, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-19-D.Lovett.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:43) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (6:33) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CIN 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 15-C.Jones. PENALTY on CIN-28-J.Newton, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CIN 9.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 54%

    (3:54) 3-J.Fox punts 33 yards to CIN 8, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 76%

    (:03) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (10:03) 8-R.Rehkow punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (12:40) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to CIN 24, Center-49-H.Hatten. 15-C.Jones to CIN 30 for 6 yards (13-C.Reynolds; 15-G.Stuard).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 46%

    (2:00) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to CIN 7, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.