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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.95 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model