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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 56

Detroit Lions 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CIN 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 15-C.Jones. PENALTY on CIN-28-J.Newton, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CIN 9.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.24 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP