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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 32

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.40 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model