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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 67

Detroit Lions 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to CIN 24, Center-49-H.Hatten. 15-C.Jones to CIN 30 for 6 yards (13-C.Reynolds; 15-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.78 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP