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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 44

Detroit Lions 35 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to CIN 7, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.70 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model