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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 43

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.48 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model