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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to DET 9, Center-46-W.Wagner. 11-K.Raymond to DET 23 for 14 yards (34-S.Perine). DET-11-K.Raymond was injured during the play. PENALTY on DET-15-G.Stuard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.32 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model