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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 32

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to LV 44 for no gain (38-C.Lammons; 99-D.Buckner).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model