Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- LV offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- IND offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- IND defense: +0.013 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
- LV defense: -0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
LV
IND
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 03:24 FG LV (3:24) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – IND 0
- Q2 11:38 TD IND (11:38) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – IND 6
- Q2 08:01 TD IND (8:01) 75-J.Travis reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – IND 13
- Q2 00:20 TD IND (:20) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. LV 3 – IND 20
- Q3 06:58 TD IND (6:58) 75-J.Travis reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – IND 26
- Q3 05:55 TD IND (5:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-A.Abdullah up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – IND 32
- Q3 02:30 TD IND (2:30) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – IND 38
- Q4 11:43 FG LV (11:43) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 6 – IND 40
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EPp(convert) 73%
(13:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to LV 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Bachman to LV 14 for 8 yards (25-R.Thomas).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(3:24) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 17 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(9:38) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 50-S.Olubi, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, recovered by LV-80-I.Thomas at LV 8.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(13:06) 8-D.Carlson punts 30 yards to IND 32, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(3:55) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to LV 44 for no gain (38-C.Lammons; 99-D.Buckner).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 82%
(14:16) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 86-A.Okwuegbunam to IND 23 for 7 yards (20-N.Cross).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LV 4th & 19 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%
(11:43) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(6:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LV 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
See the full breakdown →
