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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Pete Carroll
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IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

LV
34.0%
IND
66.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

LV 21
–
IND 25
Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

LV

Eric Stokes CB Questionable Knee
Michael Mayer TE Questionable Concussion
Brock Bowers TE Questionable Knee

IND

Kenny Moore II CB Out Achilles
Tyler Goodson RB Out Groin
Alec Pierce WR Out Concussion
Daniel Scott S Out Knee
Tyquan Lewis DE Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 6
–
IND 40

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:24 FG LV (3:24) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – IND 0
  • Q2 11:38 TD IND (11:38) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – IND 6
  • Q2 08:01 TD IND (8:01) 75-J.Travis reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – IND 13
  • Q2 00:20 TD IND (:20) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. LV 3 – IND 20
  • Q3 06:58 TD IND (6:58) 75-J.Travis reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – IND 26
  • Q3 05:55 TD IND (5:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-A.Abdullah up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – IND 32
  • Q3 02:30 TD IND (2:30) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – IND 38
  • Q4 11:43 FG LV (11:43) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 6 – IND 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to LV 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Bachman to LV 14 for 8 yards (25-R.Thomas).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (3:24) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 17 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:38) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 50-S.Olubi, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, recovered by LV-80-I.Thomas at LV 8.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:06) 8-D.Carlson punts 30 yards to IND 32, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:55) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to LV 44 for no gain (38-C.Lammons; 99-D.Buckner).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 82%

    (14:16) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 86-A.Okwuegbunam to IND 23 for 7 yards (20-N.Cross).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 19 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (11:43) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LV 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.