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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 56

Indianapolis Colts 40 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LV 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.83 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model