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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.23 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 6, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP