Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 17 – Carolina Panthers 7

(1:54) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model