4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

MIA
47.8%
CAR
52.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR defense: +0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Bryce Young (CAR) -0.009 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.203 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 24
–
CAR 25
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

MIA

Cedrick Wilson Jr. WR Out Knee
Storm Duck CB Out Ankle

CAR

Tershawn Wharton DT Out Toe
Chuba Hubbard RB Out Calf
Ja'Tavion Sanders TE Out Ankle
Chau Smith-Wade CB Out Chest
D.J. Wonnum LB Questionable Hip
LaBryan Ray DE Questionable Ankle
Cam Jackson DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 24
–
CAR 27

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:08 FG MIA (9:08) 47-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – CAR 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD MIA (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – CAR 0
  • Q2 10:53 TD MIA (10:53) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 83-D.Waller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – CAR 0
  • Q2 03:28 TD CAR (3:28) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-X.Legette for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – CAR 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG CAR (:04) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIA 17 – CAR 10
  • Q3 12:19 FG CAR (12:19) 10-R.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIA 17 – CAR 13
  • Q4 06:14 TD CAR (6:14) 77-Y.Nijman reported in as eligible. 5-R.Dowdle left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIA 17 – CAR 19
  • Q4 04:50 TD MIA (4:50) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 23 – CAR 20
  • Q4 02:03 TD CAR (2:03) 9-B.Young pass short right to 84-M.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 24 – CAR 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 56%

    (3:12) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 83-D.Waller pushed ob at CAR 34 for 6 yards (7-T.Moehrig).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 35%

    (6:57) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan ran ob at MIA 27 for 21 yards [15-Ja.Phillips].

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:54) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-D.Dallas.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-D.Dallas.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:08) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to MIA 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-M.Washington to MIA 24 for 7 yards (21-N.Scott).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:39) 16-J.Bailey punts 61 yards to CAR 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-49-J.Cardona.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (:15) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to MIA 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-M.Washington to MIA 34 for 7 yards (21-N.Scott; 40-K.Barnes).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:29) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to CAR 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-D.Dallas. PENALTY on MIA-27-E.Bonner, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:33) 6-S.Martin punts 61 yards to MIA 10, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-M.Washington to MIA 25 for 15 yards (20-D.Dallas).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:23) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to CAR 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-27-E.Bonner.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 73%

    (3:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (26-R.Douglas).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 17 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to CAR 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-D.Dallas.