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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 17 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP