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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 13 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to MIA 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-M.Washington to MIA 24 for 7 yards (21-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model