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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 13 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(:15) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to MIA 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-M.Washington to MIA 34 for 7 yards (21-N.Scott; 40-K.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP