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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 17 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to CAR 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-27-E.Bonner.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.77 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model