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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 33

Carolina Panthers 20 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(3:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (26-R.Douglas).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.86 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model