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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 92

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 32-K.Kroeger punts 51 yards to NYG 41, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-31-J.Howden.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 92, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 50, worth -2.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model