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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NYG
52.4%
NO
47.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: +0.155 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to NYG: Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.221 vs Jaxson Dart (NYG) -0.181 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NYG 22
–
NO 21
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYG

Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Out Hamstring
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB Doubtful Shoulder
Dexter Lawrence DT Questionable Illness
Tyler Nubin S Questionable Groin

NO

Isaac Yiadom CB Out Hamstring
Chase Young DE Out Calf
Cesar Ruiz G Out Ankle
John Ridgeway DT Out Shoulder
Trey Palmer WR Out Ankle
Taysom Hill QB Questionable Knee
Foster Moreau TE Questionable Knee
Juwan Johnson TE Questionable Ankle
Dillon Radunz G Questionable Toe
Trevor Penning G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 14
–
NO 26

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:38 TD NYG (9:38) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 84-T.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 01:44 FG NO (1:44) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NYG 7 – NO 3
  • Q2 13:06 TD NYG (13:06) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 84-T.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – NO 3
  • Q2 07:46 FG NO (7:46) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NYG 14 – NO 6
  • Q2 05:27 TD NO (5:27) 2-S.Rattler pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 14 – NO 12
  • Q2 00:03 FG NO (:03) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NYG 14 – NO 16
  • Q3 06:57 FG NO (6:57) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NYG 14 – NO 19
  • Q4 15:00 TD NO (15:00) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NO 13 for -1 yards (90-B.Bresee). FUMBLES (90-B.Bresee), RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at NO 14. 31-J.Howden for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 14 – NO 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:51) 32-K.Kroeger punts 51 yards to NYG 41, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-31-J.Howden.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (1:44) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 12 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 73%

    (7:46) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 42%

    (5:34) 12-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to NO 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:42) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to NO 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 11 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%

    (1:30) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:45) (No Huddle) 17-W.Robinson left end to NYG 47 for 2 yards (4-K.McKinstry).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%

    (6:57) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 52%

    (12:50) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to NO 42 for 2 yards (93-N.Shepherd).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 67%

    (10:06) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep right intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 4-K.McKinstry [20-P.Werner] at NO 5. 4-K.McKinstry pushed ob at NO 5 for no gain (13-J.Hyatt).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:37) 32-K.Kroeger punts 32 yards to NYG 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:53) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart scrambles up the middle to NYG 49 for 6 yards (56-D.Davis).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 62%

    (4:12) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 22-R.Shaheed to NYG 32 for 8 yards (2-D.Banks).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 85%

    (2:00) 19-B.Grupe 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson.