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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 48

New York Giants 14 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 12-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to NO 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.94 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model