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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 57

New York Giants 14 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to NO 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.40 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model