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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 55

New York Giants 14 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(12:45) (No Huddle) 17-W.Robinson left end to NYG 47 for 2 yards (4-K.McKinstry).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.62 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model