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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 44
New York Giants 14 – New Orleans Saints 26
What Actually Happened
(12:50) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to NO 42 for 2 yards (93-N.Shepherd).
The Three Options
GO
+1.51 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.98 EP
- 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.02 EP
KICK
-0.26 EP
- 52% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
- 48% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT
-0.03 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
