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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 28

New Orleans Saints 26 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 19-B.Grupe 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.69 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model