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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 17

New York Giants 14 – New Orleans Saints 26

What Actually Happened

(:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.06 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 17, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.57 EP