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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 10

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.33 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 10, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP