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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 48

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 7-T.Morstead punts 33 yards to LA 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.73 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP