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San Francisco 49ers

4-1 HC Kyle Shanahan
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Los Angeles Rams

3-2 HC Sean McVay
Thursday 2025-10-02 · 20:15 ET SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

SF
35.5%
LA
64.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.158 vs Mac Jones (SF) -0.002 EPA/dropback (SF starting Mac Jones in place of Brock Purdy)
  • LA defense: -0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SF offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SF 22 15–29
–
LA 25 18–32
Projected margin: LA by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

SF

Jauan Jennings WR Out Ankle
Brock Purdy QB Out Toe
Robert Beal Jr. DE Out Ankle
Ricky Pearsall WR Out Knee
Jordan Watkins WR Out Calf
CJ West DT Questionable Thumb

LA

Rob Havenstein T Doubtful Ankle
Tyler Higbee TE Doubtful Hip

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 26
–
LA 23

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:12 TD SF (10:12) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 88-J.Tonges for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – LA 0
  • Q2 13:47 TD SF (13:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – LA 0
  • Q2 02:15 TD LA (2:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – LA 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG SF (:02) 18-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 17 – LA 7
  • Q3 06:36 FG SF (6:36) 18-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 20 – LA 7
  • Q3 03:48 TD LA (3:48) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – LA 13
  • Q4 10:43 TD LA (10:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – LA 20
  • Q4 02:57 FG SF (2:57) 18-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 23 – LA 20
  • Q4 00:06 FG LA (:06) 16-J.Karty 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. SF 23 – LA 23
  • Q5 05:55 FG SF (5:55) 18-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 26 – LA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 14 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:11) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to SF 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 9-S.Moore to SF 9 for no gain (56-S.Dolac).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 37%

    (4:19) 10-M.Jones up the middle to LA 48 for 2 yards (95-P.Ford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 64%

    (2:11) 3-B.Robinson up the middle to LA 38 for 1 yard (48-O.Speights).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 60%

    (10:11) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 37 for 4 yards (91-S.Okuayinonu).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 42%

    (6:18) 7-T.Morstead punts 33 yards to LA 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 93%

    (:02) 18-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 73%

    (12:51) 16-J.Karty 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (6:36) 18-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:46) 10-M.Jones up the middle to SF 38 for 2 yards (91-K.Turner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:15) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to LA 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for 6 yards (31-I.Guerendo).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:19) 7-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to LA 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 30 for 2 yards (59-C.Robinson; 57-L.Gifford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (8:18) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to SF 2, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 41 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 60%

    (2:57) 18-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 97 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:53) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to LA 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at SF 37 for 16 yards (33-S.Neal). PENALTY on LA-25-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 40.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 55%

    (:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to SF 30 for 13 yards (2-D.Lenoir).

    See the full breakdown →