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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Thursday 2025-10-02 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

SF
36.8%
LA
63.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.158 vs Mac Jones (SF) -0.002 EPA/dropback (SF starting Mac Jones in place of Brock Purdy)
  • LA offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SF defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 22
–
LA 25
Projected margin: LA by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

SF

Jauan Jennings WR Out Ankle
Brock Purdy QB Out Toe
Robert Beal Jr. DE Out Ankle
Ricky Pearsall WR Out Knee
Jordan Watkins WR Out Calf
CJ West DT Questionable Thumb

LA

Rob Havenstein T Doubtful Ankle
Tyler Higbee TE Doubtful Hip

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 26
–
LA 23

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:12 TD SF (10:12) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 88-J.Tonges for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – LA 0
  • Q2 13:47 TD SF (13:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – LA 0
  • Q2 02:15 TD LA (2:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – LA 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG SF (:02) 18-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 17 – LA 7
  • Q3 06:36 FG SF (6:36) 18-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 20 – LA 7
  • Q3 03:48 TD LA (3:48) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – LA 13
  • Q4 10:43 TD LA (10:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – LA 20
  • Q4 02:57 FG SF (2:57) 18-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 23 – LA 20
  • Q4 00:06 FG LA (:06) 16-J.Karty 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. SF 23 – LA 23
  • Q5 05:55 FG SF (5:55) 18-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 26 – LA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 14 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:11) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to SF 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 9-S.Moore to SF 9 for no gain (56-S.Dolac).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 37%

    (4:19) 10-M.Jones up the middle to LA 48 for 2 yards (95-P.Ford).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 64%

    (2:11) 3-B.Robinson up the middle to LA 38 for 1 yard (48-O.Speights).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 60%

    (10:11) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 37 for 4 yards (91-S.Okuayinonu).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 42%

    (6:18) 7-T.Morstead punts 33 yards to LA 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 93%

    (:02) 18-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 73%

    (12:51) 16-J.Karty 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (6:36) 18-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:46) 10-M.Jones up the middle to SF 38 for 2 yards (91-K.Turner).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:15) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to LA 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for 6 yards (31-I.Guerendo).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:19) 7-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to LA 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 30 for 2 yards (59-C.Robinson; 57-L.Gifford).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (8:18) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to SF 2, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 41 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 60%

    (2:57) 18-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 97 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:53) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to LA 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at SF 37 for 16 yards (33-S.Neal). PENALTY on LA-25-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 40.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 55%

    (:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to SF 30 for 13 yards (2-D.Lenoir).