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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 2

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 18-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.34 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 2, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP