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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 10-M.Jones up the middle to SF 38 for 2 yards (91-K.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.42 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 22, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model