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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 20 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to SF 2, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP